Further expansion of dollar crisis: China's fiscal and monetary policies should be more active from just
Zhang Tingbin
2008 Mid-Autumn Festival, Wall Street has fallen into the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Wall Street has not yet respite, the bad news after another .14 May, the fourth largest U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers announced plans to file for bankruptcy. The deep crisis of the third-largest investment bank Merrill Lynch has also been Bank of America agreed to be forced merger of emergency. Lehman's bankruptcy is like a boulder into the pond has been choppy dollar crisis, the shock wave will continue to spread.
At the same time, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's remarks even worse: The United States is caught in the event of default is always to pay back the money, that there is nothing unexpected.
mm2005 on December 30, the author wrote or worse There may be of harm into rupture has been inevitable that China should take precautions, with the greatest determination and the fastest improving the social security system, so as to stimulate domestic demand to minimize this turbulence on the Chinese economy.
mm2008 on January 2, I In the newspaper article entitled is: bundled dollars, have to rush to board the > nearly two months, the rapid appreciation in the dollar index on the occasion, U.S. rekindle the passion some people, I could sit on the sidelines, focusing on the Federal Reserve in September (6m8 months after the peak of the subprime mortgage interest rates revaluation) will dare to raise interest rates . if it dared, that U.S. global financial markets still effectively control disk, and if not, then the U.S. subprime mortgage and other debt crisis more severely than the appearance of the dollar weak, real weak and already has the. Lehman's bankruptcy is that the dollar again out of control in the financial markets.
The rebound in the current round of dollar against the euro, in fact, a lack of fundamental support, mainly benefited from the outbreak of conflict in South Ossetia with the upgrade, it is equivalent to the abdomen in Europe, a knife, objectively played a role against the euro. But contrary to Russia's strong and decisive expected the United States, Russia and quickly established a and other continental European countries a clear economic sanctions against Russia, NATO, the traditional new cracks appeared. This reflects the United States out of control on the global political situation.
financial markets and the dual control of global politics is likely to mean that the U.S. super- powers to accelerate recession, which will fight against the global confidence in the dollar, the dollar fell into the new channel.
U.S. financial crisis since the depth and breadth of the imagination far more than some people, a lot of people into a panic in panic disorder and even spread to the dollar on the yuan, transmitted to U.S. assets. I think this is totally unnecessary.
some of the big fanfare of dollars can not decouple the RMB, RMB assets exaggerated panic, if not subjective ulterior motive, then there may not recognize the substance of the current round of global financial crisis.
is the essence of this crisis, the dollar junk lead to crazy expansion of the global financial bubble, a serious departure from the entity to create material wealth, economic growth. The reason why the financial bubble in the dollar could be so expansive, is devalued and suppressed by the real value of material wealth for the former title. In other words, the disillusionment with the financial bubble of material wealth will be more fair and reasonable valuation. that is, it is the United States a disaster, while the material wealth of resources on the main supply and producers are opportunities, including China.
onto the island, one of which is American, 5 Asians, Asians .5 responsible fishing, hunting, fire cooking, eating only the Americans responsible for the Asians only eat leftovers, and then get a heap of dollars may never be fulfilled IOUs. If the Americans are expelled, then the Asians, the sky would fall on the island? The answer is simple mm they will be better, not only would pay would a meal, and leftovers are no longer rice.
so the dollar crisis, the Chinese people not to panic. The main challenge is that we can better appetite, become more domestic consumption.
decided to have three core domestic demand growth in China. First, The wealth created in China to stay at home and taken away by the allocation of foreign capital more reasonable, if the increasing share taken away, or the growth of domestic demand is empty talk; second, between fiscal revenue and income how the distribution is more reasonable, if tax revenue growth is still far more than GDP growth, GDP growth over income growth, and that domestic demand is still empty talk; Third, the distribution between rich and poor to a more reasonable, how to recommend appropriate effective social security system to alleviate the worries of domestic demand.
Thus, for strategic purposes, the dollar crisis on China is an opportunity, if China so there is a problem, it is not primarily America's problem, but our own reform crucial not in place. and find it difficult to place the reform in difficult circumstances, should adopt a positive response to fiscal and monetary policies to avoid a hard landing for the RMB assets and the risks of economic development, and to create conditions for further reform crucial. Therefore, in September 15 evening, the Chinese central bank announced the cut loan interest and reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 1% is very timely and decisive (of the
China has re-mastered The first judge decided.
expansion in the U.S. financial crisis, the fourth largest investment bank Lehman declared bankruptcy, the third largest investment bank Merrill Lynch takeover, when the decision is particularly necessary, otherwise the stock market tomorrow will be plunged, The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2000 points in one fell swoop. Now it is possible to rise sharply, and quite possible that the Shanghai A share index in 2000 really a bottom line point.
back in early 2007, I began to put forward the on hot money for the 2008 Asian financial crisis brewing a new, profits, while the RMB asset bubbles continue to enlarge, making the Chinese asset prices higher and higher, getting lower and lower corporate profits in China, both to the limit against the back, the hot money will figure dagger is poor, launched the Since the spring, I repeatedly reminded: the competitiveness of China's factory of the world has been substantial damage. If the turbulent trillions of dollars of hot money in China is also tightening the money supply, short the stock and property prices in yuan assets mm, with its consequences will be very severe. < br> mm4 14, I wrote a the formation of chorus, while the cantor is the same group of people who have high-pitched sung mm of RMB appreciation on China's development of what is necessary for banks and real estate valuation is how good. now transformed mm RMB appreciation has caused the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing inflection point, the U.S. economic downturn will cause China's economic decline, the stock market listed companies fell to investment income this year from last year's surge into the crash. you can hardly say they were wrong, but this time in the market frenzy to fan the flames, in the the behavior of the market fears worsen the situation, only the market are either too far up or down too far.
mm4 21, I write objectively beneficial to hot money, hands and feet. hot money in doing? According to media reports, they are actively contracted loans to commercial banks to fill out those funds mm chain space is tight, very well-qualified Chinese private enterprises. but it is much more stringent loan conditions to only by short-term loans, the interest rate of 30% in general (general business simply does not profit from the business such a high interest rate) or more, often attach conditions when these companies can not repay mm, according to the net debt to equity asset prices .
This is the place where hot money the wisest, the more you tighten the money supply commercial banks, private finance for SMEs more intense, hot money, the higher lending interest rates, tightened lending money once the hot money at the same time, many companies will fund chain shock, hot money will be able to acquire the net assets of prices holding company of China's most high-quality assets. In short, do not turn faster appreciation in the case of the higher deposit reserve ratio, the hot money control the ability of China's industrial economy stronger. I hope that the outcome will not arise when the hot money pocket Zhaqi mm fasten up, we suddenly realized the objective of monetary policy of their own opportunities in China will be driven into the hot money Japan, the author then essays, The ; neutral , the author continues into words mm mm in the hot money has been expected in the near future, the case of short of RMB is still accelerating RMB appreciation; in the domestic commercial banks and local enterprise fund chain has been a very tense situation, but more monetary tightening to allow local financial and business due to financial chain forced to stop production shock fracture; If hot money is ready to leave the case of large-scale, but greater efforts to promote the capital, .
mm9 7 April, I published Another controls the money supply is huge. This bold conjecture, once established, the Chinese currency regulation and macroeconomic regulation and control will encounter the most difficult challenges. today is the most dangerous, the data seems to prove that the continued flow of hot money, the central bank therefore continue to contraction of liquidity, which will center the , and only a huge amount of hot money and foreign cash, the Chinese renminbi assets genuine escape the U.S. The article also highlighted the new challenges of macro-control, that we can not effectively control the behavior of hot money flows and the time. target is likely to have been distorted due to interference of hot money, control objectives should turn to the stock, property and other asset prices range control, while Chinese companies have established chain of shortage of funds index, the range of regulation. specific to the stock market, such as in the previous regulation on the stock market Shanghai index 2500mm4000 points, close to 2,500 points, to release the liquid, hold the bottom; if the stock index to rise rapidly, toward the 4,000 points to contraction of liquidity should be decisive. Some of the above suggestions, such as the RMB appreciation will not continue, and even money from the tight turn loose and flexible, and increase efforts to support SMEs, etc. have been gradually adopted today, the central bank one-time loan interest reduced to 0.27% + 1% of small and medium sized banks to reduce reserve payment rates, this action shows the decision-making authorities to regain control of our monetary situation of the determination and will. As a result, I basically believe that China will enter a counter-offensive phase of the war against hot money, has been re-mastered the crack initiative. If this is a limited effect on the market, it should also continue to expand.
next step is to prevent another situation is that expansion of the current U.S. debt crisis situations, such as long-term presence of a considerable proportion of hot money China, if China's central bank easing, and exploits for hot money to see again, not cheap to pick up, also released liquidity, and then sought the RMB assets, they might then be a new round of volcanic eruption-type prices. then how would we control the formation of new challenges.
, of course, the decision-making security work very well, hot money has clearly failed to achieve targets hunters, so that a retaliatory A shares to rise, it would have restored property income people, so that hot money regret not cope sweet skill. (of the to the anti-hot money to the cause of the war, I will be Sept. 21 speech in Beijing mm Panzhihua earthquake.
forces and agents of its domestic policy with public opinion, international hot money will conduct a comprehensive siege Chinese investors, stock and property markets, gold and business capital chain can be described as under siege, how cold this winter? will be thoroughly frozen earth is also a mere late spring? encirclement and suppression East Fourth Ring Dajiaoting Huateng Xintiandi three)
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Speaker Description: < br> Zhangting Bin: to help China win in the international market investors, trends; May 2007, warning A shares, or such as . name
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